Thought Leader of the Week: Kevin Smith
According to Kevin Smith, managing director and head of U.S. business for Prudential Real Estate Investors, investors in the U.S. commercial real estate market, many who returned to the sector ahead of the fundamentals coming back, are hoping for an improvement in the country's economy in 2012.
Prudential Mortgage Capital surpasses 2010 commercial mortgage originations in 2011
Prudential Mortgage Capital Company originated nearly $9.7 billion in commercial mortgages in 2011, surpassing its 2010 originations of $9.1 billion. Dave Twardock, president of Prudential Mortgage Capital Company, says the company is looking to complete up to $11.6 billion in 2012 and expects financing for multifamily properties to comprise much of that, along with retail centers, industrial properties and some hotels.
After under performing the broad U.S. corporate bond market in the second half of 2011, U.S. bank debt staged an impressive rally in January 2012, turning in its best monthly return since July 2009. We believe there continues to be hidden value in the debt of select U.S. money center banks. This paper explores the resilience of large U.S. banks since the 2008 financial crisis and demonstrates how their capital, liquidity, and asset quality are far stronger now than before the crisis. Importantly, in this paper we delve into why stronger fundamentals, lower leverage, and generous current yield levels lead us to favor the sector over the longer term.
Top youth volunteers in each state selected in 17th Prudential Spirit of Community Awards
When Nicholas Cobb was 4 years old, he saw a family living under a bridge near his Allen, Texas, home. When he asked why they were there, his parents explained that the family was homeless. “I just couldn’t understand how that could be,” he says. In the 10 years since then, Cobb has been working to make life easier for those who have fallen on hard times. Most recently, he formed a nonprofit organization that has raised more than $20,000 to buy coats to keep 385 homeless families in his community warm during the winter.
The More Things Change, The More They Remain The Same
Despite the dampening effect of the European crisis, Prudential Fixed Income expects the U.S. recovery to continue. While fiscal consolidation may temper growth slightly in 2012, it is not expected to start in earnest until 2013. As a result, credit fundamentals should remain robust., and despite the 2011 bull market in U.S. Treasuries, Prudential Fixed Income says there is still value to be found in fixed income. While markets may remain volatile, spread sectors, such as corporate bonds, structured product, and emerging markets, are likely to outperform in 2012.
In this year-end edition of “Turbulent Teens,” we update two issues we addressed in earlier versions: equity and bond valuation, and the ongoing crisis in Europe. We also examine two issues many investors are increasingly concerned about: the long-term outlook for the U.S. and the rest of the developed world, and the potential for a real estate-induced bubble busting in the largest emerging market, China. This report consists of four themes: Valuation, U.S.-West Decline, Europe and Emerging Markets.
Commercial real estate, both public and private, presents a compelling opportunity for investors today. Not only does the sector provide many long-term investment benefits, including healthy income returns and a hedge against inflation, but in coming years fundamental factors such as the supply/demand cycle are set to turn positive while demographic forces look to be favorable. The growth associated with rising economic activity - including job creation and increased consumer spending - should translate into higher demand for commercial properties.
The last few years of low interest rates have been like an exclamation point at the end of a three-decade bull market. So what should we expect to happen next? Many market analysts and pundits anticipate that rates will eventually move back to a higher range, especially given continued fiscal laxity. However, based on historical factors and events, Prudential Fixed Income concludes that the wait for much higher interest rates might prove futile.
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